Background
Floods are major natural hazards affecting large areas and millions of people world-wide every year. They are a regularly recurring phenomenon with strong environmental and socio-economic impacts. Flood prevention and protection will be one of the most important challenges for all parties involved in flood risk management in the coming decades. It will be a continuous task of governmental bodies and scientific institutes, in close cooperation with society and business, to look for innovative methods for flood protection and prevention, especially in a transboundary context.
Recent developments in flood forecasting allow for better quantification of uncertainties that come with flood forecasting modelling. Information about uncertainties must be communicated to decision makers as well as to the general public. The change from pure deterministic to more probabilistic forecasts is a challenge for all stages of flood risk management.
The workshop will present recent developments, look for knowledge gaps and discuss new perspectives.
Objectives
To introduce new approaches in hydrological and meteorological forecasting
To discuss ways of assessing, communicating and accepting uncertainty
To improve practical decision making based on a better understanding of theory
To foster integrated approaches (model chain, risk assessment, decision and communication)
To explore ways of integrating predictive uncertainty into decision making processes
To address the benefits of forecasting systems
The International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine Basin (CHR) invites scientists, decision makers and stakeholders in the field of flood prediction, flood prevention and crisis management to discuss these issues during a two-day workshop.
Structure and workshop themes
The workshop is divided in three plenary working sessions:
Theme 1: New approaches to flood forecasting
Keywords:
Forecasting systems (HYDROLOGY, METEOROLOGY)
Quantification of uncertainty
Ensemble and probabilistic forecasting
Theme 2: Aspects of decision making for flood damage prevention
Keywords:
Understanding and enhancing public's behavioural response to flood warning information
General principles of theory - versus actual practice
Boundary conditions and drivers of decision making (economy)
Integrated decision support systems (DSS)
Decision making under known uncertainty (risk informed decision making)
Theme 3: Acceptance and communication of flood warnings
Keywords:
Verification of forecast and warning
Assessment of predictive uncertainty
Communication of uncertainty
Communication systems
Human factor (psychological aspects of forecasting and warning)
Common language
Role of media/competing services
Training/preparedness
Organisers
The invitation to the event is issued by the International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine Basin (CHR) in cooperation with the COST731 Action, the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment, the German Federal Institute for Hydrology, the German IHP/HWRP Secretariat, the German Association of Hydrological Sciences, the Netherlands National Committee IHP-HWRP, and the Dutch Centre for Water Management.
Language
Working language of the workshop will be English.
abstracts_alkmaar.pdf
| Attachment | Size |
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 Book of abstracts | (6.01 MB) |
report_alkmaar_may_2010.pdf
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| Final report with conclusions and recommendations | (895.98 KB) |
spreafico_alkmaar.pdf
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| Spreafico - Information on the CHR | (4.7 MB) |
allewijn_alkmaar.pdf
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| Allewijn - Flood forecasting and crisis management in The Netherlands | (5.23 MB) |
bloeschl_alkmaar.pdf
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| Blöschl - Advances in flood forecasting and the implications for risk management | (3.06 MB) |
ebel_alkmaar.pdf
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| Ebel - Advances in flood forecasting with Delft FEWS | (2.75 MB) |
becker_alkmaar.pdf
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| Becker - Meteorological ensemble forecasting | (4.51 MB) |
todini_alkmaar.pdf
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| Todini - Quantification of uncertainty using Bayesian approaches | (4.21 MB) |
savenije_alkmaar.pdf
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| Savenije - Anomalies in the Meuse behaviour and how to model flood events | (2.21 MB) |
dietrich_alkmaar.pdf
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| Dietrich - Decision support systems and decision making under known uncertainty | (830.45 KB) |
vanruiten_alkmaar.pdf
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| Van Ruiten - Disaster management and dealing with the response on flooding | (6.48 MB) |
merz_alkmaar.pdf
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| Merz - Quantification of uncertainty in flood risk assessments | (6.59 MB) |
mahrholdt_alkmaar.pdf
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| Mahrholdt - Meet the press! Nobody cares about flood prevention | (7.25 MB) |
berod_alkmaar.pdf
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| Bérod - Warning communication, communication warning | (4.47 MB) |
schanne_alkmaar.pdf
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| Schanne - The media do not report on forecasts, they report on events | (75.42 KB) |
gutscher_alkmaar.pdf
| Attachment | Size |
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| Gutscher - The role of affect in communicating flood risks | (450.17 KB) |
Day 1 - 25th May 2010
Registration - from 08.30 a.m.
09.00
Welcome by Manfred Spreafico, president of CHR
09.15
Welcome by Roeland Allewijn, Director Division Water and Use, Centre for Water Management
09.30
Keynote by Günter Blöschl - Technical University Vienna
Theme block 1 - New approaches to flood forecasting
Chair: Johannes Cullmann / Rapporteur: Eric Sprokkereef
10.15 - 10.45
Advances in Flood Forecasting with Delft-FEWS - Martin Ebel, Deltares
10.45 - 11.15
Tea/Coffee - Posters
11.15 - 11.45
Meteorological ensemble forecasting - Paul Becker, German Weather Service
11.45 - 12.15
Quantification of uncertainty using Bayesian approaches - Ezio Todini, University of Bologna
12.15 - 13.15
Lunch
13.15 - 13.45
The COST731 Action - Propagation of uncertainty from meteorology into hydrological models - Massimiliano Zappa, Swiss Federal Research Institute, WSL Birmensdorf
13.45 - 14.15
Anomalies in the Meuse behaviour and how to model flood events - Hubert H.G. Savenije, Delft University of Technology
14.15 - 14.35
Two strategies for the quantification of uncertainty in the European Flood Alert System - Peter Salamon, Joint Research Centre, Ispra
14.35 - 15.05
Discussion of theme 1
15.05 - 15.30
2 min. oral poster presentations
15.30 - 16.00
Tea/Coffee - Posters
Theme block 2 - Aspects of decision making for flood damage prevention
Chair: Günter Blöschl / Rapporteur: Sebastian Kofalk
16.00 - 16.30
Decision support systems and decision making under known uncertainty - Jörg Dietrich, Leibnitz University of Hannover
16.30 - 17.00
Disaster management and dealing with the response on flooding - Kees van Ruiten, Deltares
17.00 - 17.30
More information is not always better: Coping with uncertainty in water management, Marcela Brugnach, University of Twente
17.30 - 18.00
Quantification of uncertainty in flood risk assessments - Bruno Merz, GFZ Potsdam
18.00 - 18.30
Discussion of theme 2
19.30
Participants' dinner
Day 2 - 26th May 2010
Theme block 3 - Acceptance and communication of flood warnings
Chair: Michael Bruen / Rapporteur: Peter Krahe
09.00 - 09.30
On the way to Ensemble Hydrological Forecasts: Lessons learned from MAP D-PHASE - André Walser, MeteoSwiss
09.30 - 10.00
Meet the press! Nobody cares about flood prevention... - Joachim Mahrholdt, ZDF German Television
10.00 - 10.30
Warning communication, communication warning - Dominique Bérod, Swiss Federal Office for the Environment
10.30 - 11.00
Tea/Coffee - Posters
11.00 - 11.30
The media do not report on forecasts, they report on events - Michael Schanne, Zurich University of Applied Sciences
11.30 - 12.00
The role of affect in communicating flood risks - Heinz Gutscher, University of Zürich
12.00 - 12.30
Discussion of theme 3
12.30 - 13.00
Summary and conclusions of the workshop
13.00
Closing of the workshop
Evening event
Participants' dinner near the conference centre on 25 May at 19.30 pm
Peter Krahe (chair)
Federal Institute of Hydrology
Postfach 200253
D-56002 Coblence
Tel. +49 261 1306 5234
krahe@bafg.de
Günter Blöschl
Institute of Hydraulics and Water Resources Engineering - Technical University Vienna
Karlsplatz 13
A-1030 Vienna
Tel. +43 1 58801 22315
bloeschl@hydro.tuwien.ac.at
Johannes Cullmann
Federal Institute of Hydrology
Postfach 200253
D-56002 Coblence
Tel. +49 261 1306 5313
cullmann@bafg.de
Robert Diezig
Federal Office for the Environment
Hydrology Department
CH-3003 Bern
Tel: +41 31 324 76 51
robert.diezig@bafu.admin.ch
Edith Oosenbrug
Federal Office for the Environment
Hydrology Department
CH-3003 Bern
Tel. +41 31 322 07 68
edith.oosenbrug@bafu.admin.ch
Eric Sprokkereef
Secretariat CHR
P.O. Box 17
NL-8200 AA Lelystad
Tel. +31 320 29 8603
eric.sprokkereef@rws.nl
Michael van der Valk
The Netherlands National Committee IHP-HWRP
c/o P.O. Box 61003
NL-1005 HA Amsterdam
info@hydrology.nl
Hans Wiesenegger
Hydrographical Institute
Federal State of Salzburg
Michael-Pacher-Strasse 36
A-5020 Salzburg
Tel: +43 662 8042 4318
hans.wiesenegger@salzburg.gv.at
Latest update: 13-05-2010
|
NAME |
ORGANISATION |
| Allewijn, Roeland | Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad |
| Andel, Schalk Jan van | UNESCO-IHE, Delft |
| Andréassian, Vazken | Cemagref, Paris |
| Arduino, Gabriel | World Meteorological Organisation, Climate and Water, Geneva |
| Becker, Paul | German Weather Service, Dept. for Climate and Environment, Offenbach |
| Belz, Jörg | Federal Institute of Hydrology, Coblence |
| Bergh, Joris van den | Royal Meteorological Institute, Brussels |
| Bérod, Dominique | Federal Office for the Environment, Berne |
| Blom, Gerard | Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad |
| Blöschl, Günter | Institute of Hydraulics and Water Resources Engineering - Technical University Vienna |
| Bol, René | Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad |
| Braam, Annemarie | Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt |
| Brahmer, Gerhard | Hessisches Landesamt für Umwelt und Geologie, Wiesbaden |
| Bremicker, Manfred | LUBW Flood Forecasting Centre Baden-Württemberg, Karlsruhe |
| Bruen, Michael | School of Architecture. Landscape and Civil Engineering - University College Dublin |
| Brugnach, Marcela | University of Twente, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Water Engineering and Management Group, Enschede |
| Choffet, Marc | Université de Lausanne - IGAR |
| Cullmann, Johannes | IHP/HWRP Secretariat - Federal Institute of Hydrology, Coblence |
| Demuth, Norbert | Landesamt für Umwelt, Wasserwirtschaft und Gewerbeaufsicht Rheinland-Pfalz, Mainz |
| Dietrich, Jörg | Leibnitz University of Hannover |
| Diezig, Robert | Federal Office for the Environment, Berne |
| Dijk, Marc van | Deltares, Delft |
| Driessen, Tjeerd | Royal Haskoning, Nijmegen |
| Ebel, Martin | Deltares, Delft |
| Görgen, Klaus | CRP Gabriel Lippmann, Luxembourg |
| Groot, Erwin de | Hoogheemraadschap van Rijnland, Leiden |
| Groot Zwaaftink, Mirjam | Royal Haskoning, Nijmegen |
| Gutscher, Heinz | University of Zürich, Department of Psychology |
| Hodel, Hanspeter | Federal Office for the Environment, Berne |
| Kahl, Bianca | BOKU University, Vienna |
| Karro, Ilmar | Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping |
| Keller, Tilo | Erftverband, Bergheim |
| Kipgen, Robert | Administration de la Gestion de l'Eau, Luxembourg |
| Kofalk, Sebastian | Federal Institute of Hydrology, Coblence |
| Kok, Kees | Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt |
| Kohlen, Bas | HKV Lijn in Water, Lelystad |
| Krahe, Peter | Federal Institute of Hydrology, Coblence |
| Krausse, Thomas | University of Technology, Dresden |
| Kroonenberg, Frank | Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt |
| Lemans, Matthijs | Deltares, Delft |
| Mahrholdt, Joachim | ZDF, German Television. Environmental Editorial Office |
| Maracek, Karl | Amt der Burgenländischer Landesregierung, Eisenstadt |
| Megens-Santos, Sandra | Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad |
| Merz, Bruno | GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam |
| Moser, Hans | Federal Institute of Hydrology, Coblence |
| Nacken, Heribert | University of Aachen, Department for Engineering Hydrology |
| Nieuwenhuis, Stefan | Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad |
| Oosenbrug, Edith | Federal Office for the Environment, Berne |
| Rademacher, Silke | Federal Institute of Hydrology, Coblence |
| Ruiten, Kees van | Deltares, Delft |
| Salamon, Peter | Joint Research Centre, Ispra |
| Savenije, Huub | Technical University Delft / UNESCO IHE |
| Schanne, Michael | Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Institute of Applied Media Studies |
| Schatzl, Robert | Amt der Steiermärkischen Landesregierung, Graz |
| Schumann, Andreas | Ruhr-Universität Bochum - Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie, Wasserwirtschaft und Umwelttechnik |
| Spreafico, Manfred | University of Berne - Geographical Institute |
| Sprokkereef, Eric | Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad |
| Stam, Jasper | Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad |
| Terlou, Alberty | Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad |
| Teunis, Boris | Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad |
| Todini, Ezio | University of Bologna |
| Tol, Sjon van der | Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt |
| Udo, Job | HKV Lijn in Water, Lelystad |
| Valk, Michael van der | The Netherlands National Committee IHP-HWRP |
| Walser, André | MeteoSwiss, Zürich |
| Weeink, Werner | Cemagref, Paris |
| Weerts, Albrecht | Deltares, Delft |
| Zappa, Massimiliano | Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Birmensdorf |
Last update: 03-02-2010
|
NAME |
TITLE OF POSTER |
| Vazken Andréassian, Cemagref, Paris | Evaluation of flood forecasting tools on the Seine River basin |
| Gabriel Arduino, WMO Climate and Water, Geneva | Integrated Flood Management |
| Joris van den Bergh, Royal Meteorological Institute, Brussels | Ensemble forecasting of precipitation and streamflow for the Meuse basin |
| Manfred Bremicker, LUBW, Flood forecasting centre Baden-Württemberg, Kralsruhe | Flood forecasting for the Upper Rhine between Basle and mannheim |
| Marc Choffet, Université de Lausanne - IGAR | Tool for analyzing the vulnerability of buildings to flooding and reduction of the risk |
| Bianca Kahl, BOKU University Vienna | EWASE - Early Warning Systems Efficiency. Flood Forecast Reliability and Efficiency Analysis |
| Bas Kolen, HKV Lijn in Water, Lelystad | Dashboard Water & Safety |
| Thomas Krausse, University of Technology Dresden | Improved flood forecasting by robust modelling |
| Stefan Nieuwenhuis, Rijkswaterstaat Centre for Water Management, Lelystad | The Dutch Flood Forecasting Centre |
| Inom Normatov, Institute of Water Problems, Hydropower and Ecology, Acadamy of Sciences Republic of Tajikistan | Ecological and social-economical estimation of the flood impacts in mountain regions of Tajikistan |
| Florian Pappenberger, ECMWF, Reading | The improvement of hydro-meteorological forecasts over the last decade |
| Robert Schatzl / Karl Maracek, Amt der Steiermärkischen Landesregierung and Amt der Burgenländischer Landesregierung | The Raab flood forecasting system. An international flood risk management project |
| Job Udo, HKV Lijn in Water, Lelystad | Flood forecasting and early warning systems Maritsa and Tunzha rivers Bulgaria. A pragmatic approach |
| Werner Weeink, Cemagref, Paris | Defining critical tresholds for ensemble flood forecasting and warning |
| Albrecht Weerts, Deltares, Delft | Operational procedure for derivation of areal rainfall for the river Rhine |