International Commision for the Hydrology of the Rhine basin - logo

Secretariat: PO Box 17 | 8200 AA Lelystad | The Netherlands | T +31 320 298 603 | info@chr-khr.org

You are here

International Workshop Advances in Flood Forecasting and the Implications for Risk Management

May 25, 2010 to May 26, 2010
General

Background

Floods are major natural hazards affecting large areas and millions of people world-wide every year. They are a regularly recurring phenomenon with strong environmental and socio-economic impacts. Flood prevention and protection will be one of the most important challenges for all parties involved in flood risk management in the coming decades. It will be a continuous task of governmental bodies and scientific institutes, in close cooperation with society and business, to look for innovative methods for flood protection and prevention, especially in a transboundary context.

Recent developments in flood forecasting allow for better quantification of uncertainties that come with flood forecasting modelling. Information about uncertainties must be communicated to decision makers as well as to the general public. The change from pure deterministic to more probabilistic forecasts is a challenge for all stages of flood risk management.

The workshop will present recent developments, look for knowledge gaps and discuss new perspectives.

Objectives

To introduce new approaches in hydrological and meteorological forecasting
To discuss ways of assessing, communicating and accepting uncertainty
To improve practical decision making based on a better understanding of theory
To foster integrated approaches (model chain, risk assessment, decision and communication)
To explore ways of integrating predictive uncertainty into decision making processes
To address the benefits of forecasting systems

The International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine Basin (CHR) invites scientists, decision makers and stakeholders in the field of flood prediction, flood prevention and crisis management to discuss these issues during a two-day workshop.

Structure and workshop themes

The workshop is divided in three plenary working sessions:

Theme 1: New approaches to flood forecasting 

Keywords:

Forecasting systems (HYDROLOGY, METEOROLOGY)
Quantification of uncertainty
Ensemble and probabilistic forecasting

Theme 2: Aspects of decision making for flood damage prevention

Keywords:

Understanding and enhancing public's behavioural response to flood warning information
General principles of theory - versus actual practice
Boundary conditions and drivers of decision making (economy)
Integrated decision support systems (DSS)
Decision making under known uncertainty (risk informed decision making)

Theme 3: Acceptance and communication of flood warnings

Keywords:

Verification of forecast and warning
Assessment of predictive uncertainty
Communication of uncertainty
Communication systems
Human factor (psychological aspects of forecasting and warning)
Common language
Role of media/competing services
Training/preparedness

Organisers

The invitation to the event is issued by the International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine Basin (CHR) in cooperation with the COST731 Action, the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment, the German Federal Institute for Hydrology, the German IHP/HWRP Secretariat, the German Association of Hydrological Sciences, the Netherlands National Committee IHP-HWRP, and the Dutch Centre for Water Management.

Language

Working language of the workshop will be English. 

Location
Restaurant De Notaris
Houttil 18
Alkmaar
Netherlands
Downloads

abstracts_alkmaar.pdf

AttachmentSize
Book of abstracts(6.01 MB)
Tentative Programme and Time Table

Day 1 - 25th May 2010

Registration - from 08.30 a.m.

09.00
Welcome by Manfred Spreafico, president of CHR

09.15
Welcome by Roeland Allewijn, Director Division Water and Use, Centre for Water Management

09.30
Keynote by Günter Blöschl - Technical University Vienna

Theme block 1 - New approaches to flood forecasting
Chair: Johannes Cullmann / Rapporteur: Eric Sprokkereef

10.15 - 10.45
Advances in Flood Forecasting with Delft-FEWS - Martin Ebel, Deltares

10.45 - 11.15
Tea/Coffee - Posters

11.15 - 11.45
Meteorological ensemble forecasting - Paul Becker, German Weather Service

11.45 - 12.15
Quantification of uncertainty using Bayesian approaches - Ezio Todini, University of Bologna

12.15 - 13.15
Lunch

13.15 - 13.45
The COST731 Action - Propagation of uncertainty from meteorology into hydrological models - Massimiliano Zappa, Swiss Federal Research Institute, WSL Birmensdorf

13.45 - 14.15
Anomalies in the Meuse behaviour and how to model flood events - Hubert H.G. Savenije, Delft University of Technology

14.15 - 14.35
Two strategies for the quantification of uncertainty in the European Flood Alert System - Peter Salamon, Joint Research Centre, Ispra

14.35 - 15.05
Discussion of theme 1

15.05 - 15.30
2 min. oral poster presentations

15.30 - 16.00
Tea/Coffee - Posters

Theme block 2 - Aspects of decision making for flood damage prevention
Chair: Günter Blöschl / Rapporteur: Sebastian Kofalk

16.00 - 16.30
Decision support systems and decision making under known uncertainty - Jörg Dietrich, Leibnitz University of Hannover

16.30 - 17.00
Disaster management and dealing with the response on flooding - Kees van Ruiten, Deltares

17.00 - 17.30
More information is not always better: Coping with uncertainty in water management, Marcela Brugnach, University of Twente

17.30 - 18.00
Quantification of uncertainty in flood risk assessments - Bruno Merz, GFZ Potsdam

18.00 - 18.30
Discussion of theme 2

19.30
Participants' dinner

Day 2 - 26th May 2010

Theme block 3 - Acceptance and communication of flood warnings
Chair: Michael Bruen / Rapporteur: Peter Krahe

09.00 - 09.30
On the way to Ensemble Hydrological Forecasts: Lessons learned from MAP D-PHASE - André Walser, MeteoSwiss

09.30 - 10.00
Meet the press! Nobody cares about flood prevention... - Joachim Mahrholdt, ZDF German Television

10.00 - 10.30
Warning communication, communication warning - Dominique Bérod, Swiss Federal Office for the Environment

10.30 - 11.00
Tea/Coffee - Posters

11.00 - 11.30
The media do not report on forecasts, they report on events - Michael Schanne, Zurich University of Applied Sciences

11.30 - 12.00
The role of affect in communicating flood risks - Heinz Gutscher, University of Zürich

12.00 - 12.30
Discussion of theme 3

12.30 - 13.00
Summary and conclusions of the workshop

13.00
Closing of the workshop

Evening event

Participants' dinner near the conference centre on 25 May at 19.30 pm 

Coordinating Committee

Peter Krahe (chair)
Federal Institute of Hydrology
Postfach 200253
D-56002 Coblence
Tel. +49 261 1306 5234
krahe@bafg.de

Günter Blöschl
Institute of Hydraulics and Water Resources Engineering - Technical University Vienna
Karlsplatz 13
A-1030 Vienna
Tel. +43 1 58801 22315
bloeschl@hydro.tuwien.ac.at

Johannes Cullmann
Federal Institute of Hydrology
Postfach 200253
D-56002 Coblence
Tel. +49 261 1306 5313
cullmann@bafg.de

Robert Diezig
Federal Office for the Environment
Hydrology Department
CH-3003 Bern
Tel: +41 31 324 76 51
robert.diezig@bafu.admin.ch

Edith Oosenbrug
Federal Office for the Environment
Hydrology Department
CH-3003 Bern
Tel. +41 31 322 07 68
edith.oosenbrug@bafu.admin.ch

Eric Sprokkereef
Secretariat CHR
P.O. Box 17
NL-8200 AA Lelystad
Tel. +31 320 29 8603
eric.sprokkereef@rws.nl

Michael van der Valk
The Netherlands National Committee IHP-HWRP
c/o P.O. Box 61003
NL-1005 HA Amsterdam
info@hydrology.nl

Hans Wiesenegger
Hydrographical Institute
Federal State of Salzburg
Michael-Pacher-Strasse 36
A-5020 Salzburg
Tel: +43 662 8042 4318
hans.wiesenegger@salzburg.gv.at

Participants

Latest update: 13-05-2010

NAME

ORGANISATION
Allewijn, Roeland Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad
Andel, Schalk Jan van UNESCO-IHE, Delft
Andréassian, Vazken Cemagref, Paris
Arduino, Gabriel World Meteorological Organisation, Climate and Water, Geneva
Becker, Paul German Weather Service, Dept. for Climate and Environment, Offenbach
Belz, Jörg Federal Institute of Hydrology, Coblence
Bergh, Joris van den Royal Meteorological Institute, Brussels
Bérod, Dominique Federal Office for the Environment, Berne
Blom, Gerard Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad
Blöschl, Günter Institute of Hydraulics and Water Resources Engineering - Technical University Vienna
Bol, René Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad
Braam, Annemarie Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt
Brahmer, Gerhard Hessisches Landesamt für Umwelt und Geologie, Wiesbaden
Bremicker, Manfred LUBW Flood Forecasting Centre Baden-Württemberg, Karlsruhe
Bruen, Michael School of Architecture. Landscape and Civil Engineering - University College Dublin
Brugnach, Marcela University of Twente, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Water Engineering and Management Group, Enschede
Choffet, Marc Université de Lausanne - IGAR
Cullmann, Johannes IHP/HWRP Secretariat - Federal Institute of Hydrology, Coblence
Demuth, Norbert Landesamt für Umwelt, Wasserwirtschaft und Gewerbeaufsicht Rheinland-Pfalz, Mainz
Dietrich, Jörg Leibnitz University of Hannover
Diezig, Robert Federal Office for the Environment, Berne
Dijk, Marc van Deltares, Delft
Driessen, Tjeerd Royal Haskoning, Nijmegen
Ebel, Martin Deltares, Delft
Görgen, Klaus CRP Gabriel Lippmann, Luxembourg
Groot, Erwin de Hoogheemraadschap van Rijnland, Leiden
Groot Zwaaftink, Mirjam Royal Haskoning, Nijmegen
Gutscher, Heinz University of Zürich, Department of Psychology
Hodel, Hanspeter Federal Office for the Environment, Berne
Kahl, Bianca BOKU University, Vienna
Karro, Ilmar Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping
Keller, Tilo Erftverband, Bergheim
Kipgen, Robert Administration de la Gestion de l'Eau, Luxembourg
Kofalk, Sebastian Federal Institute of Hydrology, Coblence
Kok, Kees Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt
Kohlen, Bas HKV Lijn in Water, Lelystad
Krahe, Peter Federal Institute of Hydrology, Coblence
Krausse, Thomas University of Technology, Dresden
Kroonenberg, Frank Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt
Lemans, Matthijs Deltares, Delft
Mahrholdt, Joachim ZDF, German Television. Environmental Editorial Office
Maracek, Karl Amt der Burgenländischer Landesregierung, Eisenstadt
Megens-Santos, Sandra Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad
Merz, Bruno GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam
Moser, Hans Federal Institute of Hydrology, Coblence
Nacken, Heribert University of Aachen, Department for Engineering Hydrology
Nieuwenhuis, Stefan Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad
Oosenbrug, Edith Federal Office for the Environment, Berne
Rademacher, Silke Federal Institute of Hydrology, Coblence
Ruiten, Kees van Deltares, Delft
Salamon, Peter Joint Research Centre, Ispra
Savenije, Huub Technical University Delft / UNESCO IHE
Schanne, Michael Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Institute of Applied Media Studies
Schatzl, Robert Amt der Steiermärkischen Landesregierung, Graz
Schumann, Andreas Ruhr-Universität Bochum - Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie, Wasserwirtschaft und Umwelttechnik
Spreafico, Manfred University of Berne - Geographical Institute
Sprokkereef, Eric Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad
Stam, Jasper Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad
Terlou, Alberty Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad
Teunis, Boris Rijkswaterstaat, Centre for Water Management, Lelystad
Todini, Ezio University of Bologna
Tol, Sjon van der Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt
Udo, Job HKV Lijn in Water, Lelystad
Valk, Michael van der The Netherlands National Committee IHP-HWRP
Walser, André MeteoSwiss, Zürich
Weeink, Werner Cemagref, Paris
Weerts, Albrecht Deltares, Delft
Zappa, Massimiliano Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Birmensdorf
Presented posters

Last update: 03-02-2010

NAME

TITLE OF POSTER
Vazken Andréassian, Cemagref, Paris Evaluation of flood forecasting tools on the Seine River basin
Gabriel Arduino, WMO Climate and Water, Geneva Integrated Flood Management
Joris van den Bergh, Royal Meteorological Institute, Brussels Ensemble forecasting of precipitation and streamflow for the Meuse basin
Manfred Bremicker, LUBW, Flood forecasting centre Baden-Württemberg, Kralsruhe Flood forecasting for the Upper Rhine between Basle and mannheim
Marc Choffet, Université de Lausanne - IGAR Tool for analyzing the vulnerability of buildings to flooding and reduction of the risk
Bianca Kahl, BOKU University Vienna EWASE - Early Warning Systems Efficiency. Flood Forecast Reliability and Efficiency Analysis
Bas Kolen, HKV Lijn in Water, Lelystad Dashboard Water & Safety
Thomas Krausse, University of Technology Dresden Improved flood forecasting by robust modelling
Stefan Nieuwenhuis, Rijkswaterstaat Centre for Water Management, Lelystad The Dutch Flood Forecasting Centre
Inom Normatov, Institute of Water Problems, Hydropower and Ecology, Acadamy of Sciences Republic of Tajikistan Ecological and social-economical estimation of the flood impacts in mountain regions of Tajikistan
Florian Pappenberger, ECMWF, Reading The improvement of hydro-meteorological forecasts over the last decade
Robert Schatzl / Karl Maracek, Amt der Steiermärkischen Landesregierung and Amt der Burgenländischer Landesregierung The Raab flood forecasting system. An international flood risk management project
Job Udo, HKV Lijn in Water, Lelystad Flood forecasting and early warning systems Maritsa and Tunzha rivers Bulgaria. A pragmatic approach
Werner Weeink, Cemagref, Paris Defining critical tresholds for ensemble flood forecasting and warning
Albrecht Weerts, Deltares, Delft Operational procedure for derivation of areal rainfall for the river Rhine